In the next 10 months, we shall see the college campus to be a center of Democratic activity. The reason appears in this short piece at The New Republic by Ruy Teixeira. According to Teixeira, the youth vote is crucial to Obama's reelection, 18-29-year-olds forming one of his strongest support groups. In 2008, the youth vote went for Obama by a 2-to-1 rate, a huge disparity that, I believe, has never been seen before in presidential elections. If those numbers hold up, and if the youth vote turns out as well as it did in 08, when 51 percent of them went to the polls (a huge gain over the 40 percent that turned out in 2000), Obama's prospects improve significantly. It may make the difference.
Teixeira cites a Pew survey that has Obama crushing Romney among the youth by 24 points, 61-37 percent. He also notes how Obama's recent populist statements resonate with under-30-year-olds, who sympathize strongly with Occupy Wall Street. Moreover, because youths feel disproportionately affected by the recession, they want more government action, and Obama has wisely (according to Teixeira) promised to provide it.
The breakdown charts a campaign strategy, Teixeira explains:
Nationally, he could break-even or a bit worse among middling age groups (30-64) but still win if he carries 18 to 29-year-olds by significantly more than he loses seniors, as he did in 2008, since the two groups tend to be of roughly similar size in presidential elections. But if he carries 18 to 29-year-olds by significantly less than he loses seniors, as congressional Democrats did in 2010, he will lose.
This translates into state-by-state tactics, and according to Teixeira, the numbers for several of them turn the youth vote into a decisive factor. The Republican candidate will certainly carry the Silent generation (the cohort preceding the Baby Boomers), which according to Pew favors Romney over Obama by 13 points (54-41 percent). If Obama and the Republican candidate share middle-age voters equally and the 08 figures for the youth vote hold up, he will overcome his disadvantage among the elderly. In Ohio, for instance, in 08 the youth vote and the elderly vote each amounted to 17 percent of the total, but the discrepancy was much wider among the youths (61 to 26 percent in favor of him) than among the elders (55 to 44 percent against him). If Obama can maintain the 17 percent figure for 18-29-year-olds, then Ohio is his, Teixeira concludes. Similar situations may be found in Nevada and Virginia.
This means that a simple get-out-the-youth-vote plan means big scores for the Democrats, even if the plan has not a whiff of partisanship to it. And college campuses are a prime area of contact between campaign activities and young individuals who otherwise watch no TV news shows, read no newspapers, and can't name the three branches of government. Expect lots of register-to-vote tables popping up outside student activities buildings. This is a terrific opportunity for Democrats, and with the civic religion of America behind it (which says that everybody should vote), I see no way for Republicans to blunt it or turn it to their own advantage.

Comments (1)
Can comment further on voting being a national religion?
Posted by Lisa | January 10, 2012 1:42 PM
Posted on January 10, 2012 13:42